According to the data recently released by the First Commercial Vehicle Network, based on the actual sales data of compulsory traffic insurance (excluding exports and military vehicles, the same below), in September 2024, the sales volume of domestic new energy heavy-duty trucks reached 7,883 units, a year-on-year increase of 148.4% and a month-on-month increase of 25%. The sales volume of new energy heavy-duty trucks has maintained a year-on-year growth for 20 consecutive months. In the first nine months of this year, the cumulative sales volume of domestic new energy heavy-duty trucks reached nearly 49,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 143.4%.
“There is a clear trend of electrification spilling over from passenger cars to commercial vehicles, and greater market space and growth potential lie in the truck sector. Since the beginning of this year, the penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks has exceeded 10% for four consecutive months, and in September the penetration rate exceeded 18%, having broken through the key turning point of 15%.” A person from Gaogong Lithium Battery Industry Research Institute told the Securities Daily reporter.
In addition, according to incomplete statistics from the Gaogong Lithium Battery Industry Research Institute, from January to September this year, electric heavy-duty trucks (pure electric) accounted for more than 93% of the cumulative sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks. Electric heavy-duty trucks have become the most mainstream technology route in the process of heavy-duty trucks’ new energy transformation.
Market data shows that in the first nine months of this year, new energy heavy-duty trucks have driven the installation of about 17GWh of power batteries, exceeding the installation volume of the whole of last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of up to 190%. New energy heavy-duty trucks have become the terminal with the largest installed capacity for power batteries after new energy passenger cars. Not only has it exceeded new energy buses, but it has also exceeded emerging electrification scenarios such as construction machinery and electric forklifts.
“Electric heavy-duty trucks are driven by both environmental policies and economic efficiency. Their development characteristics, such as rich application scenarios and obvious trend of large power consumption, mean that their penetration will bring huge opportunities to the lithium battery industry. In particular, with the maturity of the new energy heavy-duty truck industry chain, technological advances and cost reductions in core components including batteries, motors, and electronic controls have also gradually increased the market demand for new energy heavy-duty trucks, especially electric heavy-duty trucks.” Zhang Xinyuan, head of research at Kefangde Think Tank, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily.
The “2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan” issued by the State Council in May 2024 requires that by the end of 2025, the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions in the transportation sector will be reduced by 5% compared with 2020. Carbon emissions in the transportation sector are concentrated in road freight scenarios, and heavy-duty trucks account for more than 80% of road freight, so it is critical to promote the electrification of heavy trucks.
The implementation of supportive policies, coupled with a sharp drop in lithium battery prices and continuous technological innovation, have become the main driving factors for the significant acceleration of the electrification trend of heavy trucks since this year.
From the perspective of the competitive landscape of enterprises, many leading enterprises have obvious advantages in technology, supply chain, and market promotion, which has also promoted the healthy development of the new energy heavy-duty truck market. Charging heavy-duty trucks are iterating towards large capacity, ultra-fast charging, and lightweight. Battery swap heavy-duty trucks are cooperating with the goals of penetrating from fixed scenarios to trunk transportation and shortening the payback period of battery swap operations. The trend of iterating towards long-life batteries has also become increasingly obvious this year.
In September this year, CATL’s commercial vehicle brand “Tianxing Battery” launched a heavy-duty truck version, which includes two models: supercharging and long-life. The former supports 70% charging within 15 minutes, and the latter supports 15 years or 2.8 million kilometers of battery life. Both versions can achieve a range of 500km.
EVE Energy is targeting the commercial vehicle market this year and launched the “Open Source Battery” series, which supports 3C supercharging and 7,000 cycle life. In September this year, the Open Source Battery Z series was successfully applied to Sany Heavy Truck’s “Long-Endurance 636” product with a capacity of 636KWh (kilowatt-hours), supporting a battery life of more than 70% after 4,500 cycles.
Earlier, the ZHONG XIN AVIATION “Zhiyuan” series heavy-duty truck batteries supported 167wh/kg energy density and a maximum 800KWh system design, which can reduce the weight of the entire system by 300kg and provide a full-load range of 530 kilometers. Juwan Technology Research’s first heavy-duty truck XFC high-speed battery also officially rolled off the production line in September and is planned to be used in heavy-duty trucks of brands such as Shaanxi Automobile and Borreton.
Guoxuan High-tech’s current layout in the field of heavy-duty truck batteries includes the Magic Tower MTB battery jointly launched by Sany Heavy Truck and the super-charged hybrid heavy-duty truck system based on the G-moment battery. The Magic Tower supports a vehicle with a capacity of 437KWh, breaking the 350KWh limit of battery-swap heavy-duty trucks.
